Trade elections, tariffs, legislation, appointments, and policy outcomes.
1DONE DEFINED OUTCOME
Trade government risk.
Directly or across markets.
Capitoline is building a U.S. exchange for government risk: direct event contracts on elections, tariffs, legislation, and policy—and Tensor Contracts for the cross-asset response.
26-EL-WI-SEN 62¢ ▲ 5
FOMC +25 × USD>EUR 41¢ ▲ 6
FOMC HOLD × S&P UP 24¢ ▼ 3
26-TRF-US-CN-30 39¢ ▼ 2
FOMC +25 57¢ ▲ 4
One venue.Two ways to trade government risk.
Use a direct contract when the outcome is the exposure. Use a Tensor Contract when the exposure is how that outcome moves markets you already hold.
Trade how a scheduled government development moves FX, rates, and equities together.
2D+COMPOSABLE AXES
Combine direct and cross-market views with state-aware matching and collateral.
1SHARED RISK SYSTEM
Tensor Contracts / Cross-asset event risk
Trade the relationship,
not just the outcome.
Each scheduled government development defines one exhaustive state space across policy and the markets it moves. Trade any cell, slice, or projection while compatible orders share liquidity.
FOMC × CROSS-ASSET RESPONSE
LIVE STATE SPACE
FOMC RESULT HOLD · +25 · +50 · OTHER
USD VS EUR STRONGER · FLAT · WEAKER
USD VS JPY STRONGER · FLAT · WEAKER
PROJECTED FOURTH AXIS S&P 500 / UP · FLAT · DOWN
SELECTED CLAIM
+25 BP × USD>EUR × USD>JPY × S&P DOWN
08.40¢IMPLIED / 11:42:08 CT
ROTATING 4D STATE PROJECTION
4 AXES / 108 ATOMIC STATES
108 linked states
Any supported projection
1 settlement tensor
1 portfolio collateral model
Express the simple view.
“The FOMC raises its target range by 25 basis points.” One claim spans every defined FX and equity response beneath it.
27 STATES / 57.20¢
Trade the exact path.
“+25 basis points, the dollar strengthens against EUR and JPY, and the S&P falls.” A single state, directly priced.
1 STATE / 08.40¢
Share liquidity across both.
A broad order can execute against a compatible portfolio of narrower claims. Counterparties do not need to quote the identical expression.
+25 BP57.2¢
FX SLICE31.4¢EQ SLICE17.4¢JOINT CELL8.4¢
STATEWISE BALANCED57.2¢ MATCHED
Choose the exposure. Capitoline handles the state space.
CAPITOLINE / EXCHANGE
14 open$436K 24h volume3 resolving this week
MARKET SESSION / OPEN
MARKET BROWSER
Political and regulatory risk, priced.
26-EL-WI-SEN · OPEN
Wisconsin Senate — GOP wins seat
62¢▲ 5 today
VOLUME 48,210OPEN INTEREST 12,404SPREAD 61 / 63
AUG 06AUG 08AUG 10NOW
RESOLUTION RECORD / EXAMPLE
FINALSource, cutoff, review status, and settlement.
“Resolves Yes if the Republican candidate is certified as the winner of Wisconsin’s 2026 U.S. Senate election.”
OUTCOMEYES / 100¢DESIGNATED SOURCEWisconsin Elections CommissionCUTOFFNov 17, 2026 · 17:00 CTREVIEW STATUSNo open challenge
PRIMARY EVIDENCE · 16:42:08 CTCertified canvass received and verified
VERIFIEDsha256:3e91...c82fOrder review ready.
Put government-driven risk on the balance sheet.
Capitoline keeps direct policy outcomes and their cross-market consequences in one auditable risk system.
- 01Define the event
Start with a scheduled policy decision, election, tariff action, release, or regulatory development.
- 02Choose the structure
Trade the outcome directly or combine it with standardized FX, rates, equity, and commodity axes.
- 03Share liquidity
Let compatible broad and narrow claims execute as one fully funded statewise portfolio.
- 04Measure the residual
See the exposure that remains after the hedge instead of hiding it inside generic basis risk.
Design partners
Tell us the government event—and the markets it moves.
We are working with corporate risk teams, market makers, brokers, funds, researchers, and data providers to define direct contracts and the first Tensor market families.